The Great Withdrawal
the log-jam break on Wednesday 21st February? That was the day that
Tony Blair, who dared not go to the House of Commons to debate the
the Independent reported that five other states are considering making an exit
‘surge’ of some 20,000 troops that the
by the Bush government are likely to be voted down by the opposition, which,
after six years of a Bush majority, now has the power to do so. Even the
‘extra-parliamentary’ orders – such as the decision to create the
Labour or Tory: who will in the next election?
There can be no safe prediction of who will win the next general election. Even the likely date, which must be by mid 2010, is far from clear. After a new Labour leader is ‘elected’ to replace Tony Blair there will be a new cabinet, in order to give it the stamp of the leader. This means a change of course, a chance to drop unpopular policies and show that the Labour party is ready to respond to criticism. It may even be necessary for the new leader (even if Gordon Brown) to call an election to confirm his acceptability to the electorate and - even more important – to the media. Has the New Labour reign ended? Will the new Cabinet feel it necessary to advertise its willingness to change policies and bring democracy back to the Labour Party? In the aftermath of the great decline caused by the retirement antics of the present prime minister, who nobody trusts, the government will be seen to have been greatly weakened. An election called to confirm support for the new leader would probably give Labour a further reduced majority.
significance, therefore, of current events is that both allies, the